Wall Street expects a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when Ulta Beauty (ULTA) reports results for the quarter ended October 2022. While this widely-known consensus outlook is important in gauging the company’s earnings picture, a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The earnings report, which is expected to be released on December 1, 2022, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expectations. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management’s discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it’s worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This beauty products retailer is expected to post quarterly earnings of $4.10 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +4.1%.
Revenues are expected to be $2.19 billion, up 9.7% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Estimate revisions ahead of a company’s earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model — the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model’s predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Ulta?
For Ulta, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bearish on the company’s earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -0.17%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Ulta will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
Analysts often consider to what extent a company has been able to match consensus estimates in the past while calculating their estimates for its future earnings. So, it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Ulta would post earnings of $4.96 per share when it actually produced earnings of $5.70, delivering a surprise of +14.92%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it’s worth checking a company’s Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’ve reported.
Ulta doesn’t appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
An Industry Player’s Expected Results
Among the stocks in the Zacks Retail – Miscellaneous industry, Five Below (FIVE) is soon expected to post earnings of $0.14 per share for the quarter ended October 2022. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -67.4%. This quarter’s revenue is expected to be $611.16 million, up 0.6% from the year-ago quarter.
The consensus EPS estimate for Five Below has been revised 0.3% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. However, a higher Most Accurate Estimate has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 10.31%.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), this Earnings ESP indicates that Five Below will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. Over the last four quarters, the company surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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